Summary
- Bitcoin is no longer driven by scarcity-based models; its price now tracks demand dynamics and correlates with high-beta tech indices.
- Traditional models like stock-to-flow and halving price regression have failed to predict BTC-USD’s recent performance, undermining the ‘digital gold’ narrative.
- Short-term headwinds stem from elevated inflation expectations, high interest rates, and geopolitical shocks, pressuring both price and mining economics.
- I rate BTC-USD as a Hold: near-term risks persist, but long-term industry structure and cyclical gaps could support future bullish potential.
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The “maximalist” system of Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) seems to be collapsing. The mathematical models that perfectly described Bitcoin’s value based on its scarcity are failing to describe the price trend.
But in the end, isn’t scarcity
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Source: The End Of Bitcoin Will Be Its New Beginning – Read full article at Seeking Alpha
