Intuitive Machines: Big Contract, Big Backlog

Quinn Martinez (Finance)

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Summary

Intuitive Machines has transformed through acquisitions and contract wins, notably a $180.4M NASA deal, expanding beyond lunar delivery.
2026 revenue guidance is $900M–$1B, underpinned by a $943M backlog, but profitability remains nascent with only narrowly positive adjusted EBITDA expected.
LUNR’s market cap of $4.5B appears stretched given persistent cash burn, uncertain margin expansion, and potential for further dilution.
Despite improved scale and optionality, I rate LUNR as a hold until a clearer margin of safety emerges and sustainable earnings are demonstrated.

Moon surface and stars with sunlight in outer space. Exploration of Solar system. Artemis lunar space program. Elements of this image furnished by NASA — dima_zel/iStock via Getty Images

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) (hereafter “IM”) recently won a major contract with NASA. Space exploration is fraught with risk, so every development like this is important. With opportunity and danger, I think investors can know when to

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Joseph Parrish

I analyze securities based on value investing, an owner’s mindset, and a long-term horizon. I don’t write sell articles, as those are considered short theses, and I never recommend shorting.I was initially interested in a career in politics, but after reaching a dead-end in 2019 and seeing the financial drain this posed, I choose a path that would make my money work for me and protect me from more setbacks. This brought me to study value investing, in order to grow wealth with risk management in mind.From 2020 to 2022, I worked in a sales role at a law firm. As the top-grossing salesman, I eventually managed a team and contributed to our sales strategy. I spent much of my free time reading books and annual reports, steadily building my vault of knowledge about public companies. This period has since been useful in helping me assess a company’s prospects by its sales strategy. I particularly get excited when the product seems to sell itself.From 2022 to 2023, I worked as an investment advisory rep with Fidelity, primarily with 401K planning. My personal study before that allowed me to pass my Series exams two weeks ahead of schedule, and I once again found myself excelling at the job. I learned a few useful things from this more formal setting, but my main frustration was that I was still a value investor, and Fidelity’s 401K planning was based on modern portfolio theory. Lacking a way to change positions internally, I chose to walk away after a year.I gave writing for Seeking Alpha a try in November of 2023, and I’ve been here since. As I spent those years saving aggressively and building up my base of capital, I also actively invest now. My articles are how I share the opportunities that I seek for myself, and my readers are effectively walking this road alongside me.

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